Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis

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Nifty Daily chart

Nifty hourly chart

In the above daily chart, the index is strong as compared to Nifty Bank which was covered last week.  Nifty is moving in a higher highs and higher lows, but the positive momentum is slowing down as the candles are making smaller bodies as compared to bodies at lower levels. It is to understand that this is likely a bull trap as the index is approaching to its crucial resistance. Again, it is an observation and not a confirmation that prices will reverse but it is expected to halt near to 11000-11050 levels.

As shown in hourly chart, the index has moved above its previous high last Friday, gaining by over 1.5% up by 162 points. As per Dow theory, it is a positive sign and the bias will continue to be positive in coming days but with caution as daily hourly RSI is lacking vacuum to move any further. In my opinion it will be difficult for prices to even cross 11050 levels going ahead and will reverse sharply once tested the mentioned level.

As per Wave theory, I think prices are moving in a-b-c- patter, in which it is moving in wave c within which it is now in wave v which is the last leg of the pattern. Wave i of wave c was extended as wave iii is only 78.6% of wave i to wave ii. This means wave v need to exhaust near to 100% of wave i to wave ii.

The summation is, the index is in transition zone and it is unlikely for it to cross 11050 levels. A reversal can be seen but price confirmation is most important in reversal to come. Cautiously positive is recommended.

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