Market Analysis With Megh Mody

 Nifty daily chart Nifty 120 mins chart From daily chart, the benchmark is likely to face resistance of 18000-18100 going ahead. Also I have been applying Ichimoku cloud for so long. Despite of moving towards 18000 levels last week the cloud is still giving negative signal (highlighted in circle). Still the moving average has not given a bullish crossover. RSI is inching towards the overbought terrain. With all these hindrances, it is advisable to go long when it is crossed decisively. One can also wait to see if 17200 is broken on the downside. In 2 hour chart, it is now evident that 18100 is a crucial resistance. The index is hovering near to it and it is forming a diamond pattern near to it. This pattern can be a continuation pattern and also a reversal pattern. To trade this pattern it is important to see on which direction the breakout occurs. The target of the pattern on the upside comes to 15800, only when Nifty breaks the level of 17200. If prices break the level of 18000...

 Nifty Bank Daily chart Nifty Bank 120 mins chart Analysis As shown in the above daily chart, Nifty Bank unlike Nifty has shown strength and has reached close to its previous high. With moving averages giving positive signs and MACD still exhibiting buy signal, there is enough room for the indices to move higher going ahead. From 2 hour chart, Bank Nifty continues to move in a positive direction and has the tendency to move near to its previous high of 41800. Price ROC has arrived near to its previous support though below the center line but this level is been tested several times. As per Wave theory, I am expecting flat pattern (a-b-c) where wave b is ongoing within which wave c is soaring the price. At present it has completed wave iv of wave c of wave b and wave v of wave c of wave b is pending on the upside. The summation is Nifty Bank is likely to move near till 41800-42000 levels as mentioned in my previous update with support at 40670.

 Hang Seng daily chart Analysis As shown in the above chart, Hang Seng is moving precisely in a falling channel and has arrived near crucial support. There is a high possibility for the prices to move higher from current levels as downside looks limited. RSI has started exhibiting positive divergence which supports my view that the index has a limited downside. This does not mean that the trend of the index has changed, but a counter trend is in offing. From Waves perspective, it is very clear that prices are moving in a triple correction (a-b-c-x-a-b-c-x-a-b-c). Where wave a of the third correction is completed and wave b is likely to unfold soaring prices near till 16800-17000 The summation is Hang Seng can start a counter trend which can surge prices near till 16800-17000 levels over medium term.

 MCX Silver daily continuous chart Analysis From the above chart, MCX Silver has given a bearish break in a symmetrical triangle pattern, post that prices continued to move in a sideways direction particularly in a range of 62500-50000. This time prices are poised to move down and break the level of 50000 decisively. With lower highs and lower lows still intact, the continuation of the downtrend will lead prices near till 40000 over medium term. In the lower panel I have added ADX which is showing that the recent countertrend which lead prices near till 62500 has no strength. Currently it is below 20 and I firmly believe that it will start moving above 20 when the major trend starts. As per wave theory, I think prices have completed wave i and wave ii and has started moving down in wave iii which is extended (debatable) so this downmove of wave iii can reach the target of 43000 over medium term which is 100% of wave i, if it is extended then it can further tumble towards 161....

 Nifty Bank daily chart Nifty Bank 2 hour chart Analysis As shown in the above daily chart, the benchmark has closed well above the upper Keltner channel which is a positive sign and can move higher from current levels. Along with that the short term moving averages are positively poised as they have given a bullish crossover. As far as prices cross its previous day high the bias for the index remains positive. From 2 hour chart, prices continues to move precisely in a rising channel formation, giving an indication that the trend is positive. There are high chances for prices to open with a gap up, for Nifty as well. It is advisable to trade keeping the stop below the low of the gap. I have applied momentum indicator which signifies that it is well supporting the prices in the positive direction. As per Wave theory, since it has overlapped which I thought it would not has forced me to change my wave counts. A flat pattern like Nifty will be well suited in which wave c is on...

  MCX Gold hourly continuous chart Analysis From the above chart, MCX Gold has started picking up momentum after moving down from 52000 to 49600 levels. The yellow metal has now climbed above 50600 and can possibly move or test the falling trend line which is placed at 51800 levels. On the lower panel I have placed Bollinger Width which indicates that the Band is expanding as it moves higher from 0 levels. Every time it has started moving higher, prices have shown good amount of rally. As per wave theory, the yellow metal is moving in double correction where it is currently moving in wave c of wave x. Wave c is impulse in nature and can move near till 51800-52000 levels over short term. The summation is MCX Gold can test the levels of 51800-52000 over short term with support placed at 49800 (closing basis).

 GBPINR 4 hour chart Spot Analysis Cable has been in the limelight off lately after the new PM of UK has started quantitative easing by buying bonds. Last week, UK Finance Minister was sacked after Tax fiasco, thus making the markets quite volatile and so as its currency. As seen in the above chart, the pair has smartly recovered from the bottom of 84 levels and now holds the level of 92, this level is been tested twice and there is a possibility now for the pair to test the support which is placed at 90. RSI has reversed from the overbought terrain and can move back towards the oversold territory over short term. Wave theory suggests, after completing wave v of wave c lower, prices might have started a corrective wave or an impulse, where it has completed wave i/a at 92 and now moving down to complete wave ii/b. The summation is GBPINR can dip near till 90.30-90 levels over short term as far as 92 holds on closing basis.

 Nasdaq daily chart Analysis As seen in the above chart, the index continues to move in a negative direction by forming lower highs and lower lows and it is moving precisely in a falling channel. Within this falling big red channel, Nasdaq is moving in a small negative channel where it has shown a reversal from the resistance of it. The benchmark continues to disappoint along with other global indices as it continues to plunge from its all time high last year. With hike in interest rates at peak and inflation still out of control, global equities will face the wrath of FED which is due in November first week. From Waves perspective, I have opened two scenarios Scenario 1 – As it can be seen prices are moving in double correction (a-b-c-x-a-b-c) where it has completed wave x and then wave a on the downside which is a zigzag pattern and wave of this pattern on the downside is pending which can go till 9740 levels, 61.8% from wave a to wave b. Scenario 2- Here where wave c i...

 MCX Copper hourly chart anticipated on 3rd October 2022 MCX Copper hourly chart happened on 5th October 2022 Analysis In my previous update dated 3 rd October 2022, I had mentioned that the red metal is likely to move higher and test 658-660 levels over very short term. Prices achieved my mentioned level- Anticipated Happened. From the above chart, MCX Copper which is moving in a lower highs and lower lows has faced the resistance of the red channel and is on the brink to reverse. Hourly RSI is below the center line thus indicating weakness. As per wave theory, prices have completed wave b of the second correction after wave a and is unfolding wave c lower in which it has completed wave i and wave ii and will start wave iii lower as it continuous to move in double correction (a-b-c-x-a-b-c). The summation is MCX Copper can tumble towards 620 levels over short term.

 Axis Bank 1 hour chart Analysis As seen in the above chart, prices which were moving above the falling trend line has now re-entered that line and is now acting as a resistance too (role reversal). RSI has reversed from the overbought zone giving an indication that the upside isn’t sustainable. However, the moving averages are showing positive crossover, but due to their laggard behavior it can again give a bearish crossover as time passes by. Wave theory suggest that the preceding upside wave was wave x and now it has started wave a in which it has completed wave a and wave b and will unfold wave c lower which can test the level of 660-640 levels. The summation is Axis bank is firmly negative and can test the level of 660-640 zone over short to medium term with resistance placed at 770 (closing basis).

 Tata Motors hourly chart Analysis From the above chart, it is very clear that the trend of this auto stock is negative and can continue to dip going ahead. With prices moving in a lower highs and lower lows, there is a possibility that the stock can plunge from current levels. The RSI has exactly reversed from the overbought terrain and it is set to change the direction. As per Wave Analysis, prices are moving in impulse fashion, where it recently completed wave iv of wave iii and it is now set to start wave v of wave iii which can sink towards 385 levels. This leg will complete wave iii on one larger degree. The summation is Tata Motors is negatively poised and can test the levels of 385 over short term.

 Bitcoin 4 hour chart Analysis From the above chart, the crypto continues to trade below the falling red trend line which gives an indication that the trend is firmly negative. However, it seems that the trend will change or it is in the process to change. The price confirmation can only be obtained once the red falling trend line is crossed and it is sustained above it, this will open positive possibilities. Another indicator is RSI which is exhibiting positive divergence, giving an indication that the downside is minimum from current levels. As far as Elliott Wave counts, prices are moving in wave v and in wave v it is forming ending diagonal. Recently it completed wave iv of wave v near the resistance and reversed. Now it is moving down to form wave v of wave v. The summation is Bitcoin can dip towards $17800-17600 levels over short term.

 Ethereum 4 hour chart Analysis As shown in the above chart prices are moving precisely in a falling red channel giving an indication that the trend is negative. Prices are also on the brink to give a breakout in a symmetrical triangle pattern which will give further direction to the price after sideways consolidation. As per wave theory, prices are moving in wave c where it has completed wave iv in a triangle pattern and will start wave v lower. The summation is Ethereum can slump towards $1220-1200 over short period of time.

 MCX Aluminum hourly continuous chart Analysis From the above chart, MCX Aluminum has given a bullish break in a falling channel which is a positive sign and also an indication that the trend is on the brink to change from negative to positive. After crossing the resistance prices then started moving lower and it is now set to test the support of Fibonacci. I think aluminum price can test the support of 50% of Fibonacci from (186.5-211.35) which is placed at 199 levels. The CMP is 204 and it can slip towards 199 or close to it. As per wave theory, prices moved up in an impulse fashion and is now moving down and it looks corrective. I think wave c has started on the downside or wave a is over then wave b higher and then wave c back down. Two probabilities are here to stay. The summation is MCX Aluminum can test the level of 199 over short term.

 FTSE 100 daily chart Analysis As shown in the above chart, FTSE 100 is an index of UK and looking at the chart one can easily interpret that the direction of the index is negative. Firstly the index broke the rising trend line followed by triangle pattern which was broken recently, thereafter there was re-testing of the pattern, thus opening the possibility for prices to slump. The volumes play important role in any pattern breakout, when the symmetrical pattern was broken (downside) there was a rise in volumes which gives the validity of the pattern. From Waves perspective, after complex correction (w-x-y) there was a symmetrical pattern formation happening at the top finally completing wave y. After completing the pattern, prices are moving in a impulse fashion where it is on the brink to complete wave iv and then wave v on the downside is pending. The summation is FTSE 100 is all set to plunge towards 6500 levels over short to medium term.

 Nifty daily chart Nifty 2 hour chart Analysis Last week, Nifty again achieved my level of 17200-17000 which was mentioned in my previous update. I had also mentioned that 200 SMA will give support to the index, the benchmark moved below the 200 SMA but closed above it. From daily chart, the index has given a bearish crossover of the two moving averages which I have been using 20 EMA (red) and 50 SMA (blue). This crossover (bearish) has happened after July 2022, indicating that the trend of the market is weak. Prices are also facing the resistance of the gap down placed at 17200-17300 levels. Daily ADX is above 20, once it is above 25-30, Nifty can sink towards 15800 levels over medium term. In 2 hour chart, the benchmark is moving in a lower highs and lower lows and moving precisely in the falling red channel. Prices recently bounced from the lower end of the channel and crossed the level of 17000. Nifty will faced the resistance of 17200-17300 levels which will activate sel...

 CAC 40 daily chart Analysis As shown in the above chart, CAC40 is the index of France and it is currently poised negatively. The primary reason for the index to be negative is it is moving in a lower highs and lower lows and falling channel. Ichimoku has turned red (cloud) which earlier was green, thus opening negative possibilities for the index. From Waves perspective, prices after forming a top at 7385, is moving down and completed wave a at 5763 followed by wave b higher at 6614 which is a running flat pattern (C failure). Currently the index is trading at 5762 and has started moving down in wave C in impulse fashion. In wave C it has completed wave i and wave ii and wave iii is ongoing and can plummet till 5450 levels which is 161.8% from wave i to wave ii. The summation is CAC 40 is firmly negative and can test the level of 5450 over short term.

 USDINR daily chart Analysis As seen in the above chart, USDINR is been moving in a higher highs and higher lows and it is precisely moving in a rising red channel. Recently it faced the resistance of the channel and reversed on the back of rate hike by RBI to 50 bps. Technically also prices were facing the resistance of the channel. With RSI in overbought terrain and prices showing a reversal at the top there is a high possibility for the pair to come down either in a sideways direction or in a steep correction. Three days ago there was a dark cloud cover near the resistance (candle stick pattern) and in Friday a Doji. All these candle stick patterns indicate that the pair can move down towards near support. Wave theory suggests, the pair is moving in an extension where it recently completed wave iii and can move down to form wave iv. The summation is USDINR spot prices can move down to test the level of 80.60-80.35 levels over short term.

 Nifty Bank daily chart Nifty Bank 2 hour chart Analysis Nifty Bank last week dipped till my level of 37600 which was the shaded portion in the above chart. On the last day of the week, prices bounced around from 37600 levels and closed above 38000. As shown in the above daily chart, the index is on the brink to give a bearish crossover, once this is done the bias will continue to be negative for Bank Nifty. ROC continues to remain below the center line which is a negative sign. The resistance for the index is placed at 39230-39435 levels. I think Nifty Bank will sink towards the level of 37300-37000 over short term. From 2 hour chart, if the index has the tendency to test its previous lows going ahead and can test the level of 37000 over very short period of time. If the index stays below 37300-37000 then it can further plunge towards 36500 levels. MFI has relieved from oversold terrain and can move back into it. As per Wave theory, Nifty Bank can open two probabilities Sc...