Nifty Elliott Wave Anlysis

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 Nifty daily chart


Nifty 2 hour chart


Analysis

Last week, Nifty again achieved my level of 17200-17000 which was mentioned in my previous update. I had also mentioned that 200 SMA will give support to the index, the benchmark moved below the 200 SMA but closed above it.

From daily chart, the index has given a bearish crossover of the two moving averages which I have been using 20 EMA (red) and 50 SMA (blue). This crossover (bearish) has happened after July 2022, indicating that the trend of the market is weak. Prices are also facing the resistance of the gap down placed at 17200-17300 levels. Daily ADX is above 20, once it is above 25-30, Nifty can sink towards 15800 levels over medium term.

In 2 hour chart, the benchmark is moving in a lower highs and lower lows and moving precisely in the falling red channel. Prices recently bounced from the lower end of the channel and crossed the level of 17000. Nifty will faced the resistance of 17200-17300 levels which will activate sellers dragging it towards 16400 over short term. RSI has relieved from the oversold terrain and can move back again to oversold territory.

From Waves perspective, prices are moving in wave iii of the current fall. Initially I thought this will be a corrective structure but the fall looks impulse. Recently it has completed wave ii of wave iii and can move down to complete wave iii of wave iii.

The summation is Nifty is firmly negative and can dip towards the level of 16400 as far as 17200-17300 is intact on the upside (closing basis).


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