Nifty Bank- Anticipated Happened

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 Nifty Bank daily chart


Nifty Bank 2 hour chart


Analysis

In my previous update I had mentioned that, "Nifty Bank is negatively poised and can tumble towards 39600-39500 levels over short term. My medium term targets are still intact which I have mentioned in my earlier updates."

The index tumbled well below the expected level and marked a low of 38598 levels. - Anticipated happened.

To read my previous article on Nifty Bank, click on the below link


As seen from the daily chart, prices are moving in a lower highs and lower lows but at current juncture, the index has arrived near to the support of the falling channel. However MACD continues to exhibit negative signal but on the short term time frame there are many reasons for not going further short.

From 2 hour chart, prices are consolidating near to the support of the channel, also it is forming an inverse head and shoulder pattern near to this support all opening the possibility of a short term bounce back. MACD has given a buy signal.

As per Wave theory, prices are moving in wave C as expected and has completed five waves down which is very evident. Now from here there are two possibilities. Either the bounce will be short lived or can come close to the resistance of the channel. If the bounce is short lived then wave C is still ongoing and its magnitude will be bigger. If not and retraces more then 61.8% of the recent fall then it can be wave X on one higher degree.

The summation is Nifty Bank is expected to move higher from current levels with possibility of a gap down move on Monday. On the upside it can move up till 39900-40100 levels. Any move above 41000 will push prices way higher till 41700-41900 levels.


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