USDINR: At multiple supports and Elliott Wave Analysis

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 USDINR spot daily chart


USDINR spot 2 hour chart


Analysis

As seen in the above daily chart, USDINR is moving in a ascending triangle pattern and it seems that the pattern is still ongoing. The important thing that has been noticed is the vols, which has come down drastically. This can also be seen in the above chart as there is no movement as such in the pair. However, the pair is consolidating near cluster of supports which has been tested several times. 

First, there is the rising red trend line of the ascending triangle pattern. Second, is the small triangle which is forming and has a crucial support placed at 81.65 levels. Third, there is 200 SMA (blue) which is now placed near to 81.60-81.40 levels. As far as this confluence zone is intact the bias for a bounce back or possibility for the pair to climb back up towards 83.00 is not ruled out.

From 120 mins chart, prices are now forming in a descending triangle pattern within the ascending triangle pattern. Prices are consolidating near to the support of the big and small triangle. An important observation that has been made is the Bollinger Band width is contracting to lowest level (red horizontal line) in the below panel. This is the level where the bands have taken support and had expanded. 

Wave theory suggests that, as prices continue to move in an ascending triangle pattern in wave 4, at present it is moving in wave e of wave 4 and it seems that wave e which normally takes more time as compared to other waves in triangle is still under process. Once this descending triangle is completed, the pair can witness a sharp rally which will open wave 5 higher.

The summation is USDINR is expected to open positive possibilities once the level of 82.15 is taken out on the upside which can propel price towards 83.00 over short term and then any move above 83.00 will surge it towards 84.50-85.00 levels. However, any break below 81.40-81.00 levels will negate the upside view.

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