Market Analysis With Megh Mody

Hindalco is one of the outperformer stock as compared to other metal stocks such as Jindal Steel, Tata Steel, Hind- Zinc etc. The reason for such outperformance is, it made an accumulation pattern at the level from 86-94 and gave a bullish break which took prices till 113 levels made on 16 th May 2013. The level of 113 is a very crucial  where its previous pivot is placed along with 50% retracement of the previous down move (137-86) and also 200 (SMA) is placed at this level. Now for prices to move in a positive direction it need to take out 113 decisively. With the help of Price and Time grid, we can observe that prices are currently quoting near the intersection of the grid which is suppose to be a crucial resistance. Please understand the grid helps us to identify the important pivots which can be under formation or its in place. The overall view for Hindalco is positive as the stock can move till 120-121 levels over short term. A dip in prices can be utilised a...

SQUARE OF 9. Introduction Square of 9 was one of the greatest invention of W.D. Gann. In the 1920’s there were no calculators, so he invented his own calculator which for him was a Master Calculator . It involved natural law which was the basis of market movements. Origin. The origin of square of 9 came into picture when Gann visited India. Gann was a traveller, when he went to Indian Temple he saw a square within a circle and there were number plotted on it. He then went to Egypt and saw Pyramids. Based on such observations he made the master calculator The Square of 9. Image and Explanation. The above chart is the Square of 9 calculator. Now what we can see is in the center of the chart there is number 1 on its immediate right there is no. 2 placed. Above no.2 there is number 3 and on its left number 4 is placed and finally it ends at number 9. What we can observe from this is the numbers are placed in the spiral form which moves in a circle and t...

In our past few updates we had been mentioning that, "Nifty will move down to 5600 as many brokerage houses were expecting it to reach till 6200-6300 mark." - BANG ON!!! We had also been mentioning that, " Nifty is at crucial juncture, a move above 5970 will provide a breather to bulls but failure to cross this level will take drag Nifty back to 5600." - BANG ON!!! On the daily charts we can observe a distribution pattern on Nifty, which clearly indicates that a top is been place at 6112. The breakout came on 25th March 2013. Now the picture is very clear that sell on rallies would be the best strategy that can be adopted. We know the power of moving averages. We have be using this technique in Nifty from some time. We can observe that Nifty has crossed 20 SMA but failed to move above 50 SMA after a bearish crossover. This indicates that the trend remains bearish. Other oscillators such as MACD is in sell mode, RSI bounced from 30 but prices failing to cro...

In our previous update we had mentioned that Nifty will come down to 5600 which is still not ruled out. The reason behind it is after falling from 6110 till 5652, broader markets relieved from oversold zone. Many traders and broking houses are very bullish and expect it to reach 6200-6500 mark after a 'V' shape rise from 5652, but is that really possible? Does the wave counts really supports? On daily charts, it is observed that prices fail to cross 5970 which is really very crucial resistance for the markets. The overhead supply is clearly observed on smaller time frame. Candle stick pattern formed on 11th of March 2013 was a Bearish Harami pattern and got the confirmation on next day as there was a black/red candle, thus giving clear signal that the trend is negative. Nifty is now at a crucial juncture and it is strictly advisable for positional traders to stay away from the markets as there is no clear trend. On a smaller time frame, Nifty is clearly making a triang...

                                                      Anticipated on 10th February 2013 Happened We had mentioned in our previous update dated on 23rd February 2013,"   Nifty will now move to 5820-5780-5750 over short term once 5830 is taken out on downside. The overall bias continue to be negative as far as 5930 is protected on upside."-   BANG ON!! We had also mentioned in our update dated on 10th February 2012, " Nifty will continue to move lower and will achieve 5700-5650 mark. Sell on rallies will be the best strategy one can adopt to initiate fresh shorts. ” – BANG ON!! After breaching 5830, Nifty moved lower and shed 100 points on Tuesday thus achieving our mentioned levels of 5820-5780-5750 on same day. We were continuously saying that Nifty will reach 5700-5650 from February 2013 after the terminal pa...

In our previous update we had mentioned  that move below 5880 will drag markets to 5820 over short term. Nifty on Thrusday shed gains with almost 100 pts and made a low of 5836 on Friday after failinf to cross 5970 on Wednesday. We had also mentioned that Nifty will come down to 5600 over medium term till February 28 or till March 02, 2013 which is the post pattern target. Now the only concern is the entire fall after the pattern breakout was corrective. For the target to achieve it should be an impulse move as it has to be in sync with time. Moving averages work very precisely in trending market. We are using 20 and 50 days moving average and we witnessed a bearish crossover as 20 day moving average crossed 50 sma from above which has turned the short term trend from positive to negative. Currently markets are hovering on the support of 100 sma, for a medium term trend to be bearish 50 sma and 20 sma need to cross 100 sma from above. We have taken retracement levels fr...

In our previous update we had mentioned that Nifty will move lower till 5700-5650 which is intact over medium term. As seen in the Daily chart , after giving a bearish break in a rising channel pattern, Nifty re-tested the lower trend line of the rising channel and made a Evening star (candlestick pattern) on 13th February and gave a confirmation by opening with gap down the next day. Currently Nifty is below both the Moving Averages. Short term moving average 20 EMA is on the brink to give a bearish crossover by cutting the 50 SMA from above which will confirm that the trend will be Bearish over medium term and  will drag down broader markets to our above mentioned target of 5600 over medium term. Now 5970 will act as a strong resistance as Nifty continue to hover below the lower trend line of the rising channel. A move below 5880 (closing basis) can pull prices lower till 5820 over short term. As per wave perspective, after completing wave v of wave 5 near 6112 ...